ESTIMATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR INDONESIA USING HOLT’S LINEAR TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Indonesia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.7 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall to reach levels around 60 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage health authorities to adopt the suggested 4-fold policy prescription.
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