CALCULATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR HONDURAS USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Honduras from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will drop from around 46.2 in 2024 to about 23.6 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of preventable maternal deaths.
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