FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR MAURITIUS USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Mauritius from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will increase from around 62 in 2024 to about 71 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality.
References
1.Ahmed I., Ali S.M., Amenga-Etego S., Ariff S., Bahl R., and Baqui AH (2018). Population-based rates, timing, and causes of maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country prospective cohort study. Lancet Glob Heal. 6(12): e1297–308.
2.Merdad L and Ali M.M (2018). Timing of maternal death: Levels, trends, and ecological correlates using sibling data from 34 sub-Saharan African countries. PLoS ONE. 13(1):1–13.
3.World Health Organization (2018). Maternal mortality: Levels and trends 2000 to 2017. 2017. World Health Organization. Maternal mortality. Key facts. WHO. 2018. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheet s/detail/maternal-mortality.
4.World Health Organization (2019). The World Health Statistics 2019. Monitoring health for the SDGs. 2019. https ://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665 /32483 5/97892 41565 707-eng.pdf?ua=1.
5.World Health Organization (WHO, 2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages. WHO. 2019. https ://www.who.int/sdg/targets/en/.
