ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE APPROXIMATION FOR MALAWI USING THE MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17605/

Keywords:

ANN, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.

Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data on MMR for Malawi from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable. The neural network model projections revealed that MMR will remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.

References

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[3]Mgawadere F., Unkels R., and van den Broek N (2016). Assigning cause of maternal death: a comparison of findings by a facility-based review team, an expert panel using the new ICD-MM cause classification and a computer-based program (InterVA-4). BJOG An Int J Obstet Gynaecol [Internet]. 2016 Sep 1;123(10):1647–53. Available from: h t t p s: / / d o i. o r g / 1 0. 1 1 1 1 / 1 4 7 1 - 0 5 2 8. 1 3 9 6 9.

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[6]World Health Organization (2023). Trends in maternal mortality 2000 to 2020: estimates by WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group and UNDESA/Population Division [Internet]. Geneva; 2023. Available from: h t t p s: / / w w w. w h o. i n t / p u b l i c a t i o n s / i / i t e m / 9 7 8 9 2 4 0 0 6 8 7 5 9.

[7]World Health Organization (2023). Trends in maternal mortality 2000 to 2020: estimates by WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group and UNDESA/Population Division [Internet]. Geneva; 2023. Available from: h t t p s: / / w w w. w h o. i n t / p u b l i c a t i o n s / i / i t e m / 9 7 8 9 2 4 0 0 6 8 7 5 9.

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Published

2026-10-09

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