PROJECTION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR LESOTHO USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Lesotho from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue on a downward trend but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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