ESTIMATING FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Latin America and the Caribbean from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 73 in 2024 to about 57 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage health authorities in this region to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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