PREDICTION OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR JAPAN USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Japan from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of avoidable maternal deaths.
References
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