CALCULATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR KENYA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality RatioAbstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Kenya from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 143 in 2024 to about 71 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage health authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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