PREDICTION OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR MYANMAR USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Myanmar from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to fall but remain relatively high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
References
1.E. E. Kim., Q. Alemi., C. Stempel., and dan H. Siddiq (2023). "Health disparities among Burmese diaspora: an integrative review," The Lancet Regional Health-Southeast Asia, vol. 8, 2023.
2.Geetika S., Mohan L., Tejbir S., and Shyam S.D (2015). To study the utilization of antenatal services among the pregnant women of rural Amritsar: An international study. International Journal of current Research, 2015; 7(5), p. 5789-15792.
3.J. Moon., S. J. Kang., Y. D. Kwon., E. M. Song., and dan J. W. Noh (2023). "Current status and needs in the primary healthcare system in Yangon, Myanmar: a mixed-method evaluation," Primary Health Care Research & Development, vol. 24, p. e37, 2023.
4.Khanal V., Mishra R.S., and Karkee R (2015). Under-utilization of antenatal care services in Timor-Leste: results from demographic and health survey 2009-2010. BMC Pregnancy and Childhood, 2015;15(211)
5.Kvale G., Olsen B.E., Hinderaker S.G., Ulstein M., and Bergsjo P (2005). Maternal Deaths in Developing Countries: A Preventable Tragedy, Norsk Epidemiology, 2005; 15(2) p. 141-149.
6.M. Syairaji., D. S. Nurdiati., B. S. Wiratama., Z. D. Prüst., K. W. Bloemenkamp., and dan K. J. Verschueren (2024). "Trends and causes of maternal mortality in Indonesia: a systematic review," BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, vol. 24, no. 1, p. 515, 2024.
7.M. T. Benner., O. Mohr., W. Kaloy., A. Sansoenboon., A. Moungsookjarean., P. Kaiser., and dan R. McGready (2024). "Mother, child and adolescent health outcomes in two long-term refugee camp settings at the Thai-Myanmar border 2000–2018: a retrospective analysis," Primary Health Care Research & Development, vol. 25, p. e27, 2024.
1.
WHO (2009). WHO Recommended Interventions for Improving Maternal and Newborn Health (2nd edition). Geneva: WHO Department of Making Pregnancy Safer; 2009.
2.WHO (2010). WHO, UNICEF, UNIFPA, The World Bank. Trends in maternal mortality 1990-2008: Global Health Observatory. Geneva: WHO Publication; 2010
3.WHO (2014). WHO, UNICEF. Every Newborn: an action plan to end preventable deaths. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2014. Available from: http://www.everynewborn.org/Documents/Full-action-plan-EN.pdf.
