MATERNAL MORTALITY PREDICTION FOR MEXICO USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Mexico from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.4 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will increase from around 54.8 in 2024 to about 57 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to direct resources to quality improvement activities and continue routine surveillance of severe maternal morbidity.
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