ESTIMATION OF EXPECTED FUTURE VALUES OF MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR MALTA USING A MACHINE LEARNING MODEL

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17605/

Keywords:

ANN, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data on MMR for Malta from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The forecast evaluation criteria of the applied model indicate that the ANN (12, 12, 1) model is stable. The neural network model projections revealed that MMR will remain very low throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage the government to relentlessly address local drivers of maternal mortality and continue routine surveillance of severe maternal morbidity.

References

1.Campbell O.M., Graham W.J and Lancet Maternal Survival Series steering group (2006). Strategies for reducing maternal mortality: getting on with what works. The lancet, 368(9543), pp.1284-1299.

2.Khan K.S., Wojdyla D., Say L., Gülmezoglu A.M. and Van Look P.F (2006). WHO analysis of causes of maternal death: a systematic review. The lancet, 367(9516), pp.1066-1074.

3.Li X.F., Fortney J.A., Kotelchuck M. and Glover, L.H (1996). The postpartum period: the key to maternal mortality. International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, 54(1), pp.1-10.

4.Malta Country Health Profile 2021.

5.WBG (2023). Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 2023.World Bank Open Data. Available: https://data.worldbank.org

6.WHO (2020). Maternal Mortality. Available: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact sheets/detail/Maternal-mortality.

7.WHO (2023). Trends in maternal mortality 2000 to 2020: estimates by Who, UNICEF, Unfpa, World Bank Group and UNDESA/Population Division. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2023. Licence: CCBY-NC SA3.0IGO.

Downloads

Published

2026-03-31

Issue

Section

Articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 1 2 3 4 > >>