ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE ESTIMATION FOR MADAGASCAR USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Madagascar from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue on a downward path but still remain very high over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage health authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.
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