APPROXIMATING ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR GUYANA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Guyana from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.1 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 92 in 2024 to around 54 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of preventable maternal mortality.
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