ESTIMATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR HAITI USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/Keywords:
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio.Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on MMR Haiti from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue to drop but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local drivers of maternal mortality and direct resources to quality improvement initiatives.
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